The Pentagon wants $54.6 billion next year for the Defense Autonomous Warfare Group, the office that replaced Replicator and is meant to buy drones and autonomous systems at scale. Today, about $1 billion of that is written into any bill in Congress.

That gap is by design. According to Breaking Defense, the department put $1 billion of the request in its regular base budget and the other $53.6 billion in a reconciliation bill that Congress has not written. Every committee that has acted on the defense budget wrote in the $1 billion. None could act on the rest. Roughly 2 percent of the ask is in a bill.

The midterm elections are Tuesday, and the government runs on a stopgap through Dec. 11. The next six weeks decide whether this is a $54.6 billion program, a $1 billion program or something in between. Here is the ledger, and what each path means.

Where the $54.6 billion sits

Breaking Defense reported in April that the DAWG request is $54.6 billion, with $1 billion in the base budget and $53.6 billion from “the more flexible future reconciliation pot.” The office received $225.9 million in fiscal 2026, according to the same report.

The Pentagon’s budget overview book describes that $53.6 billion mandatory request as “Drone Dominance”: $39.2 billion for “a multi-year investment in autonomous systems procurement, domestic production capacity, and advanced capabilities” and $14.4 billion for counter-drone systems. The same document lists a separate $54.0 billion for “autonomous and remotely operated systems” across all domains. That is a broader cross-cutting total that includes the $39.2 billion, not a second pot of money.

Congress has acted only on the base piece. A Congressional Research Service report on selected weapon systems, as summarized by Defense-Aerospace.com, shows $1.0 billion for DAWG in the House Armed Services bill (H.R. 8800), the Senate Armed Services bill (S. 4784) and the House defense appropriations bill (H.R. 9495). None lists a figure against the $53.6 billion. The Senate committee also fenced DAWG funds until the department delivers reports required by earlier defense bills, according to Defense-Aerospace.com.

One more number belongs on the ledger: $1.2 billion Congress approved for drones through last year’s reconciliation law, according to Federal News Network. That money is already provided and is separate from the fiscal 2027 request.

The reconciliation math

The Pentagon’s budget assumes $350 billion will come through “a subsequent mandatory reconciliation bill.” At the Association of the U.S. Army conference on Oct. 14, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the department is working to ensure that bill comes in “at a minimum of $350 billion, potentially more,” and that it will pursue the money regardless of the midterm results, Federal News Network reported.

Congress is working with a much smaller number. A CSIS analysis published Oct. 28 notes that the budget resolution the House passed in July (H. Con. Res. 113) provides $60 billion in reconciliation funds for defense, and that the Senate version would provide the same. The Senate has not voted on its version. CSIS concluded that Congress is more likely to pass something “closer to the $60 billion” than the $350 billion requested.

Put the figures side by side. The drone request alone, $53.6 billion, is about 89 percent of the entire $60 billion defense allowance. The House resolution also includes $21 billion for munitions, according to CSIS, and Breaking Defense reported that the reconciliation request carries Golden Dome missile defense as well. A $60 billion bill cannot fully fund all three.

Time is short too. CSIS counts 22 scheduled Senate days and 20 House days on the calendar. It also cites Senate Majority Leader John Thune, via Politico, saying that securing the votes to pass reconciliation after the midterms would be “difficult.”

What the stopgap blocks

Under the continuing resolution, the government is funded through Dec. 11 at fiscal 2026 levels. Stopgaps generally bar new programs and production increases unless Congress grants a specific exception, known as an anomaly. We found no reporting of an anomaly for DAWG or other drone programs in the current measure.

Breaking Defense searched the budget documents on Oct. 1 and found more than 150 possible new starts. The list includes DAWG plans, the Space Force’s Autonomous Tactical Fabric, budgeted at $1.5 billion in fiscal 2027, and Army procurement of unmanned and autonomous ground systems. On Collaborative Combat Aircraft, Brig. Gen. Timothy Helfrich put it plainly: “You can’t go do production without production funding.” Sen. Chris Coons told reporters, “We are going to be in a mad dash to try and avoid a full-year CR.”

The NDAA authorizes but does not pay

The defense policy bill matters for rules and authorities, not cash. The House passed H.R. 8800 by 216 to 212 on July 22. In the Senate, a cloture vote on the motion to proceed to S. 4784 failed 50 to 46 on July 14, according to CRS. Roll Call reported Oct. 27 that the bill is tied up over the Iran war and the size of the budget request, with Rep. Rob Wittman describing “informal bicameral staff negotiations.” Both chambers’ versions authorize $1 billion for DAWG. Neither can appropriate a dollar.

Three paths after Nov. 3

We are not predicting which path Congress takes. Each has different consequences for the drone money.

Path one: a lame-duck reconciliation bill passes. The size matters more than the label. At $60 billion, lawmakers would have to choose between drones, munitions and Golden Dome. DAWG director Lt. Gen. Steven Marks said in September he does not know whether the office will get “the full ask of $53.6 billion,” and that his greatest concern is losing momentum “if we don’t get something,” Breaking Defense reported.

Path two: reconciliation falls short and the Pentagon moves priorities into the regular appropriations bill. Comptroller Jules Hurst said in September the department could “go back to the appropriators before they finalize the bill,” adding, “The question would be, what’s more important to have money for in FY27 [or] can it wait for FY28.” Breaking Defense noted this would mean cutting or deferring other investments. The House defense bill already sits at about $1.072 trillion, in line with the request, according to CSIS. Sen. Mitch McConnell has urged building one-time defense spending into full-year appropriations, Roll Call reported.

Path three: another continuing resolution, possibly for the full year. DAWG would generally stay funded near its fiscal 2026 level, and new starts would stay blocked without anomalies. Even the $1 billion base line, which is in every committee bill, would wait.

Our read: what it means for companies and lawmakers

For companies, near-term competitions are moving regardless. DroneLife reported that Drone Dominance Phase III, about $450 million for an initial 60,000 one-way attack drones at fixed prices of $5,000 and $3,000, closed its solicitation Oct. 12, with Gauntlet III testing expected in March 2027. Gauntlet 2.5, for reusable bomber drones, moved to early November. The open question is a 2027 production ramp. A program funded at $1 billion looks very different to a supplier than one funded at $54.6 billion, and the account type matters: Breaking Defense describes the DAWG money as research and development, while the budget overview’s language includes procurement and production capacity. Companies should watch which appropriation, if any, the money lands in.

For lawmakers, the choice is concrete. Fitting drones into a $60 billion bill squeezes munitions and missile defense. Moving them into the base bill means cuts elsewhere under a fixed topline. Doing neither delays the buildup. The Pentagon has also tied its planned Autonomous Warfare Command, targeted for Oct. 1, 2027, to this money, according to Federal News Network.

What we don’t know

We don’t know the election results or how they change lame-duck incentives. CSIS lays out scenarios in which either party may prefer to push decisions into 2027.

We have not found a Pentagon document that states whether the $53.6 billion is research, procurement or a mix. Reports differ, and we have left the account type open.

We don’t know how the department would rank drones against Golden Dome and munitions inside a smaller bill. Hurst called it “too premature” to say and suggested final decisions will likely come in the new calendar year.

Topline figures also vary by source. The budget overview lists $1.1 trillion in base discretionary funding and $1.45 trillion in total; press reports and CSIS often cite $1.15 trillion and $1.5 trillion. The differences come from rounding and from what is counted.

What to watch

• Nov. 3 results. Whether Senate leaders schedule a vote on their budget resolution in the lame duck.

• Dec. 11. A full-year stopgap, another short one or full-year appropriations, and any anomaly for DAWG or drone production.

• NDAA text. The final DAWG authorization and the Senate’s reporting conditions on its funds.

• Pentagon trade-offs. Any revised priority list sent to appropriators, which Hurst suggested could come early next year.

• Testing. Gauntlet 2.5 in early November and Drone Dominance Phase III awards.

We track where the drone money sits each week in the newsletter. Readers who refer three colleagues get our free Defense Autonomy Programs Cheat Sheet.