Democrats won control of the House and the Senate on Tuesday, CBS News and the Associated Press projected. Several races were still uncalled Wednesday morning, and Punchbowl News reported that “a 56-seat majority isn’t out of the question” in the Senate. The new Congress is seated Jan. 3.

On Monday we laid out the ledger for the Defense Autonomous Warfare Group: $1 billion of its $54.6 billion request sits in the base budget and in every committee bill, and the other $53.6 billion was placed in a reconciliation bill that lets the Senate pass spending with 51 votes. That bill has not been written. Tuesday’s result sets a deadline for it. Reconciliation needs majorities in both chambers, and Republicans hold both only until Jan. 3.

The lame-duck window, and why we think it stays shut

Republican leaders were not close before the election. Asked in July whether reconciliation was a lame-duck project, Senate Majority Leader John Thune told Punchbowl News, “Remains to be seen.” Asked how close he was to the votes for the budget resolution, he said, “Good question.” Sen. Jerry Moran (R-Kan.) said in April, “we don’t have a reconciliation bill that is close to being put together,” Defense One reported. Sen. Mitch McConnell said at a hearing that a fresh reconciliation bill with defense dollars is “not an option,” and Sen. Susan Collins echoed him, according to ExecutiveGov.

Thune himself called passing another bill “difficult” even in a lame duck, Politico reported Oct. 13. Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-Ohio) told Politico before the election, “If we lose control of Congress, it’ll be the Last Supper.”

The mechanics haven’t gotten easier. Another reconciliation bill would require two more all-night vote-a-ramas, Punchbowl reported in July, and the Senate has never voted on its budget resolution. Republican leadership elections are less than a week away, Punchbowl reported Wednesday, and its account of Thune’s lame-duck plans centers on judicial confirmations. It does not mention reconciliation.

Our read: the reconciliation path for the $53.6 billion is closed. We’d be surprised to see the Senate budget resolution get a vote, and a $60 billion bill, if one somehow passed, could not fund drones, munitions and Golden Dome together.

Who writes the next bill

Bills that aren’t enacted by the end of a Congress die with it. That includes the three committee bills carrying DAWG’s $1 billion: the House and Senate NDAAs and the House defense appropriations bill. The NDAA will probably survive the lame duck. Sen. Jack Reed (D-R.I.), in line to chair Senate Armed Services, said in May, “My guess is that they will get an NDAA bill,” Federal News Network reported. The appropriation is the open question. Rep. Mike Simpson (R-Idaho), a senior appropriator, told Politico before the election, “I just don’t think we’ll get them done by the 11th.”

If the base bill slips into January, Democrats write it. Here is what they have said.

Reed called the $1.5 trillion request “not a serious budget” and said, “I will not rubber-stamp a bloated, undisciplined budget.” He described much of the reconciliation money as “wishful thinking rather than a detailed budgetary plan,” and said, “I think the real sort of brakes on the process come in the appropriations.”

Rep. Adam Smith (D-Wash.), in line to chair House Armed Services, voted against the House NDAA in July and said he opposed “another partisan budget reconciliation process that includes an additional $60 to $350 billion for defense.” In a May interview with TIME, he said his priority as chair would be oversight: “What I really want to press for is greater transparency.” TIME also reported he wants to accelerate military innovation and reform acquisition.

Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.), the top Democrat on Senate Appropriations, said in April that “the only responsible thing to do with a budget this morally bankrupt is to toss it in the trash.”

What the Pentagon said it would do

The department has already described its fallback. In June, Emil Michael, the under secretary for research and engineering, said the Pentagon would trade traditional weapons for low-cost autonomous systems if the $350 billion reconciliation bill fails, calling it “portfolio balancing,” ExecutiveGov reported, citing Breaking Defense. A large share of the $350 billion was tied to autonomous systems, drones among them. Comptroller Jules Hurst said in September the department could “go back to the appropriators before they finalize the bill,” Breaking Defense reported, with final decisions likely in the new calendar year. Politico reported Oct. 29 that officials were preparing a budget that cuts $400 billion from the request, according to the Daily Beast.

Those trades will now be negotiated with Democratic committees.

Our read

Drones are in a better position than most of the $350 billion wish list. The incoming chairs object to the topline and to the party-line process, not to autonomy, and the Pentagon has said it would cut legacy programs to protect low-cost autonomous systems. But the program suppliers were told to plan for was $54.6 billion. The program Congress has written is $1 billion, in bills that expire in eight weeks. Under a full-year stopgap, DAWG stays near its fiscal 2026 level of $225.9 million.

For companies, the near-term competitions continue. Gauntlet 2.5 was pushed from October to early November, and Drone Dominance Phase III awards are pending. What Tuesday changed is the 2027 production ramp. We’d plan for the base bill, written by Democrats, with drone money that comes from somewhere else in the Pentagon’s budget, and we’d watch which programs it comes from.

What we don’t know

We don’t know the final margins in either chamber.

We don’t know whether Republican leaders will try reconciliation anyway. We found no statement on it since the results.

We don’t know which legacy programs the Pentagon would trade, or whether Democratic appropriators would accept the trade.

We don’t know whether the Pentagon’s reported smaller budget keeps the drone line whole.

What to watch

• GOP leadership elections next week. Whether Thune schedules a vote on the budget resolution.

• Dec. 11. Another stopgap, a full-year CR or full-year appropriations, and any exception for DAWG.

• NDAA conference. The $1 billion authorization and the Senate’s reporting conditions on its funds.

• The Pentagon’s revised priority list, which Hurst suggested could come early next year.

We track where the drone money sits each week in the newsletter. Readers who refer three colleagues get our free Defense Autonomy Programs Cheat Sheet.